Inaccuracies, Damn Inaccuracies and Statistics

The Independent reports that official figures on economic growth may be wrong. According to Goldman Sachs the UK's economy is growing at between 1% and 2%, not, as the official stats claim, shrinking. It's not just the UK's stats that are called into question. The Euro area is doing better than official figures suggest, while the US isn't doing quite as well as claimed.

This shouldn't come as a surprise. Official figures always seem to be wrong. But it's growth predictions that are renowned for their almost comical inaccuracy. This new measure suggests actual growth figures are inaccurate for at least two to three years after the period they represent.

If this new measure is accurate, what is not comical is the damage being done to confidence in the British economy by the current talk of recession, that potentially could become a self fulfilling prophecy. For the government, news of recession has been leapt upon by opponents and the media keen to lay into them for a number of, mostly self serving, reasons. The figures came as a surprise as many were expecting a slight upturn. They may yet be revised upwards, but the damage is done in people's minds. Consumers and investors will become more cautious in spending their money leading to a higher likelyhood of a further downturn.

Politically, also, there are potential consequences. There are few respectable dissenting voices on the governments attempts to bring public spending under control. But those, less than respectable voices, that do dissent are getting louder and a lot more airtime and column inches as they shriek "I told you so!"; that cutting government spending inevitably leads to recession. In fact, spending is still increasing, but the likes of Ed Balls are never ones to let mere facts get in the way of their pseudo-Keynesian logic. And the more notice people take of Balls et al, the more pressure the government will feel to abandon the course they've taken, as arguably too cautious as it is. And that certainly would guarantee this country's continued decline for decades to come.

Of course, if the new measure is accurate, Osborne should find himself in a strong position come 2015, general election year. That is, if the coalition can survive the perception of failure in the meantime.

 

Labour's Riots Blame Game Tactic Turns Toxic

Ed Miliband has recently proven he is more wily than he's been given credit for in the past.

His opportunistic harrying of Cameron over Hackgate was politically very effective. He correctly assessed the mood of the public and demanded decisions and action faster than a Prime Minister burdened with actual responsibility could deliver. It made him look like he was leading the debate. He was lucky that the media (most of which backed Labour's politically motivated anti-Murdoch agenda but for commercial reasons) mostly glossed over Miliband's hypocrisy and inconsistency on the subject. He emerged from the Hackgate scandal in a stronger position as Labour leader. It now looks likely he'll not be replaced anytime soon.

But Miliband couldn't play the same game when the riots broke out. There's no doubt he'd loved to have gone with the "PM's on holiday in Tuscany and is out of touch with the suffering of the nation" line but, sadly for him, he was also on holiday. So that line was somewhat muted.

Instead, when he and Harriet Harman returned from holiday early, they decided on a strategy to blame the Tories for the rioting and looting that had, by now, spread around London and into other English cities. But wily Miliband has been careful to leave the explicit statement of this line to his lieutenants. Harman's brazen outburst on Newsnight on Tuesday was the clearest example if it, closely flowed by Diane "private school is ok for my kids but not yours" Abbott, last night.

Miliband was right to test the water via his underlings first. It's gone down like a lead balloon with the public, who want to see a strong and robust response to the criminals who have been perpetrating the vandalism and theft, not weak excuses made for party political gain. The whole tactic is turning toxic for Labour exposing, as it does, their preponderance to see every event as an opportunity to score party political points. That's not to say that there aren't serious political issues to discuss. But the petty accusations that we've heard (such as riots only occur under Tory governments, spending cuts (that haven't happened yet) are to blame and tuition fees (that have yet to increase)) are clearly not intended to help cast light on the real root causes of the trouble but to advance the cause of the Labour party.

Again, today, Miliband has been careful not to make petty party political points in Parliament. Let's hope he now abandons the whole tactic and insists on his troops showing a bit more sensitivity and common sense from now on.