Farage's Folly?

I'm not sure Nigel Farage was wise to announce that he's considering running in the Eastleigh by-election.

On the one hand, if he decides not to, he'll look like he's running scared of a fight in a seat currently held by the Euro-fanatical Lib-Dems. He'd have to come up with a pretty convincing reason not to run now.

On the other, if he does stand he'll almost certainly lose and, in the process, block the candidate of the only other party committed to delivering a referendum on EU membership and letting in Labour or the Lib Dems. This will illustrate perfectly the Tory message that a vote for UKIP is a vote for the EU fan boys in Labour and the Lib Dems.

There is a third option around a electoral pact. Toby Young proposes one scenario whereby the Tories don't stand in Eastleigh if UKIP agree not to oppose Tories in any of their current seats.

I can't see this being acceptable to the local party, given that they have a chance of winning. However, given the Lib Dems duplicitous reneging on their coalition agreement commitment to even-up the sizes of parliamentary constituencies, the Tories do need to look at more tactical options, as the system is rigged against them.